Briga Nordeste x Sul dita votos convictos de Lula e Bolsonaro

Atrás, no ranking do potencial de voto, estão Sérgio Moro (31%), Luciano Huck (28%), Fernando Haddad (27%), Ciro Gomes (25%), Marina Silva (21%), Luiz Henrique Mandetta (15%), João Doria (15%) e Guilherme Boulos (10%)

Mesmo antes de o ex-presidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ser considerado novamente elegível, um terço dos brasileiros afirmava que votaria sem dúvida alguma no petista caso ele fosse candidato ao Palácio do Planalto. E um quarto do eleitorado se dizia convicto no apoio à reeleição de Jair Bolsonaro.

Esses contingentes já seriam suficientes para praticamente garantir uma disputa de segundo turno entre Lula e Bolsonaro – se a eleição fosse hoje, claro. Faltam 567 dias para o reencontro com as urnas, tempo hábil para que eventos externos ou novas candidaturas alterem o cenário.

Os dados sobre lulistas e bolsonaristas convictos são um recorte da pesquisa Ipec (Inteligência em Pesquisa e Consultoria) divulgada na semana passada, feita com a mesma metodologia e pela mesma equipe do antigo Ibope Inteligência. O levantamento não é de intenção, mas de potencial de voto. Mais do que projetar resultados, esse tipo de pesquisa serve para mapear o capital político de potenciais candidatos em diferentes segmentos da população, de acordo com renda, escolaridade, religião e domicílio, por exemplo.

Segundo o Ipec, 50% dos entrevistados ouvidos em fevereiro disseram que votariam com certeza ou poderiam votar em Lula se ele se candidatasse novamente à Presidência da República, e 44% afirmaram que não o escolheriam o petista de jeito nenhum. Já o potencial de voto do presidente Bolsonaro foi de 38% e a rejeição, de 56%.

Atrás, no ranking do potencial de voto, estão Sérgio Moro (31%), Luciano Huck (28%), Fernando Haddad (27%), Ciro Gomes (25%), Marina Silva (21%), Luiz Henrique Mandetta (15%), João Doria (15%) e Guilherme Boulos (10%).

Quando se excluem desses resultados os entrevistados que “poderiam votar”, mantendo só os que votariam “com certeza”, aparece o eleitorado fiel de cada um: 34% para Lula e 25% para Bolsonaro.

O levantamento também mostra que, entre os eleitores convictos dos dois potenciais candidatos, o maior contraste é o regional. Ambos estão bem próximos no Sudeste e no Norte/Centro-Oeste, mas Lula tem uma vantagem de 36 pontos sobre Bolsonaro no Nordeste (55% a 19%). No Sul, é o presidente quem lidera: 32% a 26%.

Renda. No quesito renda, há diferenças significativas nas respostas apresentadas pelos eleitores considerados mais convictos. Praticamente metade do eleitorado mais pobre, com renda de até um salário mínimo, diz que votaria em Lula com certeza – vantagem de 28 pontos (48% a 20%). Nas faixas com vencimentos acima de dois salários mínimos, é Bolsonaro que tem mais eleitores convictos, mas a diferença, neste caso, não passa de sete pontos.

Entre evangélicos, a maior parte diz que votará com certeza em Bolsonaro (39%) – o que não surpreende, já que seu governo é fortemente ligado a esse setor da sociedade. Entre católicos, o mesmo porcentual se define como pró-Lula.

O Ipec também consultou o eleitorado no que diz respeito à raça. No eleitorado que se define como branco, não há grande diferença entre o ex e o atual presidente. Já entre os pretos e pardos, Lula tem 37% e Bolsonaro, 24%.

Quando se divide o eleitorado de acordo com sua escolaridade, o levantamento revela uma vantagem significativa para Lula entre os que estudaram apenas até a antiga quarta série, hoje o primeiro ciclo do Ensino Fundamental. Nesse grupo, Lula soma 47%, e o presidente Bolsonaro tem 24%. Já no segmento com curso superior, o petista também lidera, mas com uma diferença menor: tem 22% de eleitores convictos, e o atual presidente, 19%.

O Ipec ouviu 2.002 eleitores em 148 municípios, de todas as regiões do País, entre os dias 19 e 23 de fevereiro – antes de o ministro Edson Fachin, do Supremo Tribunal Federal, anular as condenações do ex-presidente. A margem de erro é de dois pontos porcentuais.

Por Redação

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